Tag Archives: Analysis

Stock Market Forecasting – Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Market forecasting is a challenging part of stock market analysis as market prediction has become the most complex task of an analyst. Market forecasting helps a trader to choose the type of security, the time of buy or sell a security and the amount that they should invest on that security.

The type of analysis used by the traders or market analysts falls into two major categories-

1. Fundamental Analysis

2. Technical Analysis

Both of the above methods rely on certain information that comes from various news sources, analytical data or investments charts.

Fundamental Analysis-

Fundamental analysis involves careful study of company’s financial operations, economic condition, assets, debts, management, products and completion. Thus fundamental analysis is based on the study of financial and industry information of a company to predict the movement of the price of its stock. Fundamental analysis is usually helpful in long term investment and day traders do not rely much on it. However some believe that the simultaneous study of fundamentals and technical can result better for day trading.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the method of evacuating securities by analyzing stock charts. It includes the analysis of market data, volume and open interest in order to predict the future trend of a stock. The analysts study the company’s past performance and study the charts to analyze if there are any patterns in the price of that security. Information about a stock’s price, volume and other important information can be displayed on a graphical chart. There are various software where study of such graph can be done very effectively and easily to study the patterns and trends. These patterns further used to determine when to buy or sell a security.

Important Factors to Consider in Competitive Analysis

To complete a comprehensive competitive analysis, you must know the competitive landscape. You must know who your competitors are. Prepare an overview of your competitors, their strengths and weaknesses. Position each competitor’s product against your products. Understand the customer needs and preferences that are you competing to meet.

When you consider your competitors, determine what are the similarities and differences between their products and yours. You must also consider how their prices compare to yours and how well they are doing. You must have a specific plan to compete. For example, you can offer better quality services, lower prices, more support, or easier access to services. You must address the following basic issues:

o Define your target market.

o Determine the size of the target market.

o Drill down to your specific segment within the target market.

o Define the size and the revenue opportunity that your segment represents.

o Determine how fast the overall market and your specific segment are growing.

o Learn what factors are most important to your customers such as price, technology, ease of use, or new uses.

o You must know the most important characteristics in your industry. Is is driven by high or low volume? Is it capital or labor intensive? Is it seasonal?

o Identify and profile your targeted customers by their consumer budgets and by how they make decisions to buy a product.

o Identify your direct and indirect competitors and understand their impact on you.

o Identify the features that differentiate your product from the competitors’.

In order to address the basic issues, you must know where to find competitive and industry information. Information is available from the Federal Commerce Department online or in the library. You can review Edgar Online and business websites to obtain required financial filings. Look for an industry trade association and industry publications. Go to Hoovers Online or Bacon’s to look for business publications in your industry. You can also check online for http://www.usdata.com or for North American Industry Classifications http://www.naics.com.

After all basic issues have been addressed and your competitive research is completed, you should be able to describe all of your competitors and their strengths and weaknesses. You should be able to clearly articulate what is different about your product and why customers will choose your product rather than the competitors’. You should also be able to describe your target market and target customer and what will motivate them to purchase your product. Finally, your should be able to explain how you will gain and keep a sustainable competitive advantage.

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